Optimal epidemic suppression under an ICU constraint: An analytical solution

How much and when should we limit economic social activity to ensure that the health-care system is not overwhelmed during an epidemic? We study a setting where ICU resources are constrained suppression costly. Providing fully analytical solution show common wisdom of “flattening curve”, measures continuously taken hold down spread throughout epidemic, suboptimal. Instead, optimal discontinuous. The epidemic be left unregulated in first phase constraint approaching society quickly lock (a discontinuity). After lockdown, regulation gradually lifted, holding rate infected constant, thus respecting while unnecessarily limiting activity. In final phase, lifted. call this strategy “filling box”. cost under obtained closed form as explicit function medical fundamentals. policy also there, addition, small associated with number infected. tighter constraint, wider range such for which still optimal. This suggests primary focus poor countries (with few resources) protect system, richer extensive may strive reduce even more.